Dude… Something most unusual is afoot at the Circle K

Hmmmmmmm
Something is going on…

 Hmmmmmmmm…

 

Omar is up to something. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but this mlb report that implies Manny was not NOT discussed at this little meeting between Boras & Omar tells me that Omar still hasn’t given up on moving the Wilpons in the Manny direction. I don’t expect the Mets to be jumping in the deep end, but if the Dodgers sign another bat then there might not be any place for poor ol’ Manny to go but right field at $iti Field.

up we go!

I said no more napping during games!

The more I think about Perez vrs. Lowe, the more I wonder how smart it is to let a 26 year old lefty with skills walk away in exchange for a somewhat more consistent pitcher who wants a ton of money and is more then a decade older. I’m just saying if Omar “settles” for Perez… all is not lost.

woof!

I just took a massive rotunda on 3rd base

 Dodger Park in Flushing got christened today by man’s best friend. I wonder if our second baseman will have trouble dogging it by the bag when he smells the piss of another similar dedicated professional. I hear the dog has good range…

Posted By Nik Kolidas

15 responses to “Dude… Something most unusual is afoot at the Circle K

  1. Perez is 27 years old
    Lowe is 35 years old

    This is a difference of 8 years – not “more than a decade”

    Nevertheless, Perez “the lefty with skills” was skillful enough to lead the league in walks last year, in less than 200 innings. Saying Lowe is “somewhat” more consistent than Ollie is like saying Jose Reyes is “somewhat” more consistent than Luis Castillo. Lowe is worth twice what Ollie is.

  2. I don’t normally post but I am compelled to respond given your evaluation (JamesK) above. Frankly I am not sure I understand why everyone is on the Lowe bandwaggon. He is at best a number two starter – in the NL East he has number three starter stuff. The argument for Perez is that he has “Ace” stuff. Yes – he can be inconsistant but given Lowe’s salary demands and the fact that Lowe has never had “Ace” stuff – Nik’s suggestion of Ollie being an ok trade-off seems spot on. As far as I’m concerned, the best free agent pitcher still availalble is Ben Sheets. Another pitcher with “Ace” stuff. Locking him up on a 3/$36 deal would seem to be a low risk/high reward signing given what a true ace normally commands these days. I may be on a short list of Mets fans not crazy about a Lowe signing but nevertheless – on that list I remain…

  3. james -

    So would you rather have Lowe than Ollie?

    Statistically, Lowe was one of the top 5 starting pitchers in the NL last year – Ollie wasn’t even in the top 30. I’m a fan of Sheets too, but it doesn’t seem like the Mets have any interest in him.

    Ground-ball pitchers age much more gracefully than power pitchers. Lowe is the 2nd best groundballer in the game behind Brandon Webb. If given the choice between Lowe and Ollie, it’s not even a question that Lowe is the much better option. And it appears he won’t cost that much more than Ollie.

    I feel sorry for the team that gives Ollie 4 years, $48 million or thereabouts – it’ll be an awful contract.

  4. James,
    Lowe was pitching in the NL West – not the NL East. Lowe’s ERA will balloon to 4.00 with the Mets facing the lineups in the NL East. So…I don’t look at Lowe’s success through his numbers alone. I don’t have an issue with Lowe – just his demands. I think he ends up going for $2 mil a year more than Ollie – so yes – I guess I would prefer Ollie given that difference and given that our primary challenger in the NL East is now decidedly left handed. And, while consistent, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility for Lowe to start breaking down due to age. Just saying that I wouldn’t really care one way or the other who we get of the two. The only rotation addition that would excite me would be Sheets.

    As for Ollie’s contract – I can’t say I agree that a 4 year $48 mil contract would be terrible. Keep in mind that lesser pitchers last year commanded more than that. And, I would bet that next year they will again once the economy bounces back. Even if you don’t consider Ollie’s “Ace” potential – that contract seems reasonable to me…

  5. james -

    This year is a different marketplace – can’t compare Carlos Silva’s deal to this year.

    ERA is not a great way to predict future performance: look at the stat FIP (fielding independent pitching)

    FIP’s for Lowe and Perez last year:
    Lowe: 3.26 (3rd in the league)
    Perez: 4.68 (36th in the league)

    This is objective analysis, not “I have a feeling Lowe’s ERA will balloon…”. Met fans have an irrational love of Oliver Perez, I really don’t get it. I like him and would welcome him back – but for a contract that is fair. $12 million a year for him is ludicrous. Plus Ollie has never pitched 200 innings in a season – Lowe does this like clockwork.

    Ollie is worth no more than $8-9 million a year, based on past performance and projected performance and using stats to back it up.

  6. James,
    Compelling argument but your FIP analysis isn’t exactly an objective argument since they didn’t face the same level of competition. If we were comparing ERAs and FIP from the same division I might be inclined to agree (unless my ignorance of that stat has me missing something). But to assert that the NL West is the same as the NL East (which is what you appear to be doing) is anything but compelling. I do agree that we shouldn’t be comparing what contracts were awarded last year with what the market looks like this year. I’m just saying that this market favors the owners and that next year it is likely to go back the other way. So… over the life of the contract, Ollie would likely end up being a bargain at $12mil.

    I guess in the end my analysis has more to do with my fear we get the version of Lowe that pitched to a mid 4/low 5 ERA in 03 and 04 with Boston – where he faced the kind of competition he will face in the NL East.

    For the record I believe Omar will get Lowe despite the Braves or any other Team’s interest. And given that we clearly have the same level of passion for this Team, I hope that you are right and I am wrong. In the end we both want the same thing…

    I would be curious what the FIP was for Sheets last year? Again, different division but would still like to know how he did. I read somewhere that Lowe and Ollie recorded something like 6 to 8 regretable starts (5 plus runs) last year – Sheets had none. Just can’t get over how the market isn’t giving him any love…

  7. Sheets’ FIP was 3.38 – very good. I’m a Sheets fan. Doesn’t seem like Omar has any interest unfortunately.

    And if the NL West was so bad, why did Ollie pitch so poorly against those teams this season?

    vs. Giants: .1 IP, 162 ERA
    vs. Dodgers: 6 IP, 7.50 ERA
    vs. Padres: 5.1 IP, 1.69 ERA
    vs. Rockies: 11 IP, 4.09 ERA

    My main points are:
    a) This post got Ollie and Lowe’s ages wrong, seemingly to push a subjective agenda

    b Ollie is being severely overrated by everyone. This opinion is totally objective, I assure you – I just want the Mets to get the best players for their $$ and Ollie at more than $8-9 million a year is not a good buy.

  8. When I wrote more than a decade, I was going more on the essence of the point than the specifics (probably a bad move when hoping to get a point across). I know it’s less than 10 years, but my overall point was that Lowe is a generation older than Perez and his baseball future is behind him, while Perez’s future is staring him in the face.

    Right now statistically, they are both decent 3rd starters (no way is Lowe a number 2) and Perez has the ability to propel himself higher. Lowe is consistent, but not spectacular. I also feel Lowe will get significantly more money… that had a lot to do with my point as well.

    One other thing worth noting is Lowe’s ADD issues and how the attention in NYC will effect him. Perez is proven to be at least serviceable here.

    Lastly, Perez is a 27 year old lefty with a strikeout per inning ratio going for him. I wouldn’t hate seeing him back. As far as the cash… I’d rather overpay for Perez then give money to Tim Redding.

  9. Nik,

    I have no problem with differing opinions – but if you say that they are similar statistically it’d be better to provide some stats to back it up. I gave a few that show Lowe was much better than Ollie in ’08 (and he was better in ’07 as well).

    I just think if Ollie was a free agent from another team, Met fans wouldn’t hold him nearly in high a regard.

  10. Good morning James K,
    I don’t believe Nik or I are infatuated with Ollie as you assert. We just recognize that for the money, Ollie gives us more bang and a better upside then Lowe. Young left handed pitchers with his kind of stuff are difficult to find. That’s all…

    Simply put from my perspective: When we march into battle come October – I want the guys who miss bats. Because the last time I checked, balls that aren’t put into play don’t find holes. Not sure if any metric can offset that simple fact…

  11. When we “march into battle in October”, I want the pitcher who gives up less runs…

    K/9 in 2008:
    Oliver Perez – 8.35
    Aaron Heilman – 9.47

    Yikes – there’s a heckuva lot more to pitching than just “missing bats” – walks, HR’s, hits, groundballs vs. flyballs… We can agree to disagree though.

  12. LOL…It’s been fun. Thanks, by the way, for the stats on Sheets. At least we agree on that!

  13. I know, but forget October and look a year or two down the line.

    They both had similar WHIP the last two years and Perez gives up way less hits per inning. To me, that tells me if he can get his control together at all (which many leftys do as they age), he’d have far better results than Lowe.

    Clearly Lowe is the better pitcher at this exact moment and on a one year deal, Lowe is the clear choice. But if you’re going 3 and beyond, it looks like Perez has the potential to provide you with greater upside. Remember, Lowe is past his prime and has no place to go but down.

    Compare…

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lowede01.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/perezol01.shtml

    Also, Look at Randy Johnson at his age 26 season and before

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml

    I’m not saying Perez is Johnson, but he didn’t get his walks down until he was in his 30′s.The same applies to Nolan Ryan.

  14. 2006 was a lost year for Perez… with that logic, let’s make Pedro the ace.

    1.1 & 1.2 compared to 1.3 & 1.4 is not that big a deal. In 2007 they were almost the same and in 2008 we’re talking about (unless my math is off) about 1 more baserunner per 5 innings.

    Perez’s upside is clear in that it’s all about walks. Perez was beating himself while others were beating Lowe.

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